PANAMA CITY BEACH — It only takes one.
Despite a forecast for a below average hurricane season this year, forecasters and emergency officials are reminding the public to be prepared in case that one bad storm moves through.
“It only takes one storm hitting you for it to be a bad season,” said National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen, referencing the 1992 season, which had just six named storms — but the lineup included the devastating Hurricane Andrew. “What our emphasis is — if it’s a below average season, so what? It doesn’t change the answer to the question of whether or not you should prepare.”
Now in the heart of hurricane season — Sept. 10 is the statistical peak day — Feltgen said warm water conditions in both the Atlantic and Gulf are favorable for tropical formations.
“This time of year, you’ve got warm water temperatures that extend all the way to the coast of Africa; that’s why September is the peak time,” he said.
While conditions in the Atlantic begin to cool in October, warmer temperatures in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea remain warm and favorable for tropical development.
This year, however, forecasters with the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) say there is a 70 percent probability for a below-average season, citing unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in an updated outlook released last month. NOAA’s updated predictions call for seven to 12 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and zero to two major hurricanes.
Just five named storms have formed thus far in the season. Tropical Storm Eduardo, which formed Thursday, is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane but remain far out in the Atlantic, according to the Hurricane Center.
“You can’t use anyone’s seasonal outlook. ... Don’t even go there,” Feltgen said. “Remain vigilant; remain prepared. We still have half the season to go yet.”
Feltgen advised those living in susceptible areas to have a storm plan, starting with determining whether you reside in a storm surge evacuation zone.
“That’s the first thing you have to do,” he said. “In actuality what kills the most people and does the most damage is water.”
Bay County Chief of Emergency Services Mark Bowen echoed Feltgen’s advice, suggesting residents invest in the basics.
“Food, water, fuel, medications, a little cash in the pocket — everybody needs to take some steps to be prepared,” Bowen said. “Those things can literally make the difference between life and death.”
Bowen recommended keeping your car’s gas tank always at least half full during hurricane season because the area can run out of fuel quickly if an evacuation is ordered.
“During hurricane season, if you’ve got three-quarters of a tank, you can get out of here,” Bowen said. “I really encourage everybody to do something, just the basics.”
