There’s a common belief among “experts” that there shouldn’t be any college-football rankings until after Week 6 of the season. Well, we’re six weeks in and it’s time to parcel out the good from the bad.
Week 6 allows for a better gauge. It offers a better look at how teams perform rather than predict how they should fall when no one has played a down. The Bowl Championship Series, for all its faults, had it correct when it put out a first ranking after five or six games.
The new College Football Playoff committee will release its first rankings Oct. 28. It’s the first of seven rankings, leading up to selection of the Final Four on Dec. 7. Those four teams are all that will matter.
For now, let’s discuss the top teams in the country as I see them through Week 6. I’ll also give a glimpse of the four teams I think should be in the playoff if the season ended today.
If you’re curious about the CFP seeding, click here.
My rankings after six weeks:
Other teams to keep an eye on in the coming weeks:
Ohio State (4-1): The Buckeyes are rolling after a loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2. They’ll need to win out to have a chance.
Oklahoma (4-1): The Sooners’ loss to TCU isn’t as bad as Ohio State’s and is on par with Oregon, but they’ll need to also topple Baylor and weed through a schedule featuring as many as four ranked teams. Strength of schedule will help the Sooners, who currently have a tougher one than Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame and Baylor.
Texas A&M (5-1): Like Oklahoma, the Aggies’ lone loss won’t hurt them if the victor keeps winning, but a second loss might be too much to overcome in the Southeastern Conference race.
East Carolina (4-1): The rest of the schedule is winnable and it entered this weekend with a Top 20 strength of schedule with the only loss to South Carolina. It will take a lot for the Pirates to sneak into the playoff, but finishing 12-1 will give them one of the primo bowl slots.
Oregon (4-1): The Ducks dropped their first game on Thursday, but it came against unbeaten Arizona. The Pac-12 also will be in the discussion if the eventual champion is highly-ranked and can make it through with no more than two losses.
Arizona (5-0): The Wildcats are in the thick of the Pac-12 race after six weeks. The key will be how beat up will they be after 12 weeks? For that matter, how much will the Pac-12 hurt itself with weekly upsets, as the more losses the less chance of breaking into the Final Four.
Top 10:
10. TCU (4-0): The Horned Frogs can make an even larger leap should they defeat Baylor next week.
9. Baylor (5-0): Why are the Bears so low? They haven’t played anyone, that’s why. Don’t get me wrong, Baylor is a solid team, but it has one of the worst strength of schedules and until it plays a team of merit (like TCU) and beats it then it will be mired low on the playoff list.
8. Notre Dame (5-0): The Fighting Irish are also hurt by strength of schedule until Saturday and are a tick above Baylor after knocking off Stanford with a late rally. Notre Dame has a chance to make a statement in a few weeks against Florida State and would have a clear path to an unbeaten mark until the finale against Southern California.
7. Alabama (4-1): You can’t ever count out a Nick Saban-coached team and the Crimson Tide will still be a factor in the SEC West race. Barring a crazy occurrence, the SEC champion will make it into the playoff and if Alabama rebounds and wins the title then it’ll be right there.
6. Michigan State (4-1): The Spartans’ strength of schedule is poor, despite playing Oregon and ranked Nebraska, but that defense is legitimate. They gave up a big lead against Oregon and will be bolstered if the Ducks finish strongly. I believe the Big Ten champion should get some love, especially if Michigan State finishes with one loss, but the committee might be swayed by the conference’s overall lack of strength.
5. Georgia (4-1): The Bulldogs might finish as the SEC’s best team and they’re four points away from being unbeaten against one of the Top 25 schedules in the country. They have the nation’s best running back in Todd Gurley and are the front-runner in the SEC East.
4. Mississippi (5-0): The Rebels made a statement with their win over Alabama. They have been consistent and proved their worth against the first quality opponent on the slate. The question now is which team will survive the grueling SEC West race?
3. Mississippi State (5-0): The Bulldogs have put themselves on the map by defeating two straight Top 10 foes, the latest Texas A&M on Saturday. The same question for Ole Miss can be used here with the Bulldogs. However, the SEC West winner could be favored in the title game and has a good chance to be among the Final Four seeds even with a loss in the SEC title game.
2. Florida State (5-0): The Seminoles have given Jimbo Fisher a little higher blood pressure this season, but they have been resilient. The last game against Wake Forest was a blowout yet it took a while to get there. FSU has room for improvement and injuries (like Rashad Greene’s concussion and the center position) might derail the run at a repeat.
1. Auburn (5-0): The Tigers have rebounded from last season’s BCS Championship loss and have looked the most impressive through the first six weeks behind an inspired Nick Marshall. They’ve defeated two ranked opponents, including dismantling LSU on Saturday. The remaining schedule includes five ranked teams and if they make it through they will be the No. 1 seed.
My Final Four (in seed order), based on rankings: Auburn vs. Mississippi State; FSU vs. Ole Miss.
My Final Four (in seed order), based on projections: Auburn vs. Oklahoma; FSU vs. Michigan State